WASHINGTON, D.C. — Former U.S. President Donald Trump has offered to step in as a mediator in the long-standing dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), signaling a potential revival of U.S.-led diplomacy in the Nile Basin.
In a letter addressed to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and posted on social media by the White House, Trump emphasized the need for a predictable water-sharing arrangement between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan.
“I am ready to restart U.S. mediation between Egypt and Ethiopia to responsibly resolve the question of ‘The Nile Water Sharing’ once and for all,” Trump wrote.
Nile Water Dispute: High Stakes for Egypt and Sudan
The GERD, inaugurated in September by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, is Africa’s largest hydropower project, costing roughly $4 billion. The dam will more than double Ethiopia’s electricity capacity, but its operation has sparked fears in Egypt and Sudan, which rely heavily on the Nile for agriculture, drinking water, and industry.
Egyptian officials have consistently described the dam as an existential threat, with Cairo depending on the Nile for 97% of its freshwater needs. Sudan, meanwhile, seeks assurances that water flow downstream will remain stable, particularly during filling seasons.
Previous efforts at negotiation—including those led by the U.S., African Union, World Bank, Russia, and UAE—have failed to reach a lasting agreement, leaving the project as a flashpoint for regional tension.
Trump’s Promise of a “Top-Priority Agenda”
Trump promised that the GERD dispute would be “at the very top of my agenda” and suggested a compromise in which Ethiopia could provide electricity to Egypt and Sudan, either by sale or donation, while ensuring a reliable water supply downstream.
He framed his intervention as a responsible diplomatic effort, stressing that “no state in this region should unilaterally control the precious resources of the Nile and disadvantage its neighbors in the process.”
Historical Context and Controversy
Trump’s interest in the GERD issue dates back to his first term, when he made headlines by suggesting that Egypt might take military action against the project. The remark sparked alarm in both Cairo and Addis Ababa, with Ethiopia summoning the U.S. ambassador to clarify the threat.
Trump has maintained a close relationship with al-Sisi, who seized power in a 2013 coup and has since ruled Egypt with a strong hand. The former president has previously referred to Sisi as “my favorite dictator”, reflecting their longstanding personal and political rapport.
Trump’s outreach comes at a time of renewed regional tensions over water security, with climate change and population growth increasing the Nile’s strategic importance. Analysts note that U.S. involvement could either stabilize negotiations or provoke further friction depending on the approach and reception by Ethiopian authorities.
